Today I got calls and emails from all sorts of folks, worrying about the Japanese radiation reaching the Northwest in dangerous quantities. Potassium iodide pills, used for thyroid protection from radioactive iodine have been stripped from the shelves in Seattle.
I think the reality is clear...there is no serious radiation threat to us here in the Northwest.
First, I should note that the weather pattern is shifting and the latest trajectories show that the low-level trajectories don't reach us.(see below) The low-level trajectories circle around in the Pacific and the upper one heads south of us. (Yes, there is uncertainty with this and it is only as good as the National Weather Service GFS model)
But even it they were heading straight for us..there is little to fear.
From virtually a point source, the radiation would mix through huge volumes of the atmosphere due to horizontal and vertical mixing. Since it would take days to reach us, there would be time for larger particles to settle out and precipitation would wash some out as well. Even for Chernobyl, where the core exploded while the reactor was powered up and where there was no containment, serious radiation only extended roughly 1000-1500 km away.
The Northwest is more than 7000 km away!
Clearly, the situation in Japan is serious and tragic, but the U.S. is not threatened.
Thinking about the tsunami I wondered whether locations threatened by tsunamis like coastal Japan (and coastal Oregon and Washington) should build escape towers. Steel and concrete buildings were not toppled by the Japanese tsunami....what if structures that could hold 200-1000 people were positioned regularly along the coast, giving people another option for safety. This would be much cheaper than sea walls and the like, which didn't seem to work anyway. Here in Washington I think of the Long Beach peninsula...a tsunami deathtrap if one ever existed. A few such towers could save many, many lives in case of a major event. And they could be relatively cheap...perhaps as simple as a wide suspension bridge between two towers.
Is this a viable idea? If it is, why aren't we doing it? Now.
The U.S. West Coast is NOT at Risk from Radiation
leading and learning
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| Ideas for lessons on Japanese Earthquake, Tsunami and Nuclear Crisis. Posted: 14 Mar 2011 11:28 AM PDT  A New York Times blogger offers great resources for teachers to use with classes. I just thought it might be useful for schools. http://learning.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/11/teaching-ideas-the-earthquake-and-tsunami-in-japan/?pagemode=print   |
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Latest Pacific Trajectories From the Japanese Reactor and Amazing Rainshadow
A few people emailed me asking for update trajectories from the vicinity of the Japanese reactors. These trajectories use the NOAA Hysplit model, driven by output from the U.S. GFS global forecasting model. I have launched trajectories from 50, 4500 and 9000 meters above the surface. Keep in mind that there are considerable uncertainties in such trajectories. So here they are:
Strangely, the trajectory starting at 50 meters ends right over Seattle...after nine days!! Even if this was true and the initial concentrations were large, trubulent and diffusive motions in the atmosphere would reduce concentrations over us to minimal, if not infinitesimal, levels.
This time of the year there is often good transport across the Pacific. It is not unusual for smoke and dust from Asia to reach us in measurable quantities...but these are extensive sources spread out over a huge area (see graphic below for an example)
Professor Dan Jaffe of UW Bothell is an expert on such cross-Pacific transport and has documented the movement of particles and chemical species across the Ocean.
On another topic... there is an extraordinary rain shadow today. Take a look at a typical radar image this morning:
The San Juans have essentially been completely dry. Only .01 inches in Friday Harbor! A trace at Whidbey Island Naval Air Station. But .31 inches here at the UW. The rain shadow extends all the way to Bellingham where only a trace has fallen. Just shows you that even on wet days, you can escape it by heading for the current location of the rainshadow.
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| Creative Leadership: A Challenge of our Times Posted: 10 Mar 2011 01:23 PM PST  If schools are to break out the crushing conformity that has resulted since technocrats and politicians captured the education agenda creative leaders will have to emerge. Creative leadership is the challenge of our times. This was the title of an article written by Loise Stoll and Julie Temperley based on their research in schools in the United Kingdom. I thank my good friend Paul Tegg for sending me their paper which I have used as the basis of my blog. So far there is little sign of such leadership emerging but there are a few points of growth that provide some hope.'Learning is the core purpose of schools', Stoll and Timperley begin their paper, 'Creative Leadership: a Challenge of our Times', and continue with a quote from a book by Stoll and Dean Fink, 'It's About Learning and it's About Time': 'these days if you can't learn, unlearn and relearn , you're lost because sustainable and continuous learning is a given of the twenty-first century. And from the Delours UNESCO book they add , 'learning to learn is the key skill of the century'. To achieve this, they believe, will demand significant changes in how teachers teach and that this 'new kind of learning fundamentally depends on creativity'. By contrast teachers current development has lead to 'dependency and a lack of creativity ' -leading to a 'just show me what to do' attitude. The 'status quo is a very compelling state'. Schools by their nature are conservative organisations. The question they ask is what will it take to help schools promote creativity? And this, they say, requires a fundamental challenge for school leadership. There is a need for leaders to consider what inhibits creative learning and what conditions are required to encourage it. This is more than problem solving and 'involves problem finding..actively scanning the environment for challenges...to engage in more radical change as they strive to prepare their students for the future'. It requires the ability to 'think and act beyond boundaries that limit our effectiveness'. It requires of principals to 'being outward looking and more adventurous looking and thinking outside the box'. This means principals being brave enough to take sensible risks so as to help teachers open up possibilities for thinking about things in different ways. This represents a new form of leadership, one that 'isn't top down: leading a team in such a way that it's not dictating and yet still scaffolding and supporting'. 'The initial modeling of of creative thinking needs to come from the top.' It seems vital that principalsand their teachers connect with other schools to extend their thinking and to see alternative approaches.Teachers need to feel that they are trusted to try new ideas out - to take risks. Stoll and Timperley identified nine conditions in the research in schools to allow learning focused innovation and creativity to thrive. Their set of conditions acts as a recipe which, in combination, produces the desired effect. 1 Model creativity and risk taking. Staff members are unlikely to take risks with new ideas if they constantly see their leaders being cautious. Leaders lead by example. 2 Stimulate a sense of urgency. 'Learning' they write,' occurs as a result of dissonance; when new ideas or situations don't fit with current beliefs or ways of working'. This dissonance becomes uncomfortable and creates a sense that something needs to be done - 'that the way we do things needs to be changed'; when things aren't working people become creative. 'Often it takes a crisis to promote action where there is inertia'. Creativity 'does not go with playing safe'. 3 Expose colleagues to new thinking and experiences. Creativity is stimulated in an environment of full of new ideas and experiences...bringing in new ideas is essential life blood in schools.. often teachers get stuck in routine monotony and don't feel they are encouraged to break out'. This means 'taking them out of their comfort zones; forcing them them to push boundaries of their thinking of what's possible.It may also mean swimming against the tide.' 4 Self consciously relinquish control. 'Schools, they write,'can feel like places of control where staff think they are being watched, both by senior teachers and external bodies'. High decile schools feel the weight of parent expectations and underachieving schools want their data to look better. Creativity is inhibited when people feel they are being continually checked on. There is a fear of letting colleagues, pupils, and parents down if they don't do what is expected and this suppresses natural creativity. This all relates to issues of trust and requires teachers 'being comfortable with each other to be able to speak their minds without being shot down in flames'. People need leeway to try things out but afterwards teachers need time to reflect and to share with others how it went. 5 People need time and space. Creative thinking is facilitated by time and the mental space for ideas to evolve and be fleshed out. They also found that some pressure of time seemed to be important to create that sense of urgency. It is a matter of balance. Setting targets is not a way to promote staff creativity. Targets seem to promote linear thinking. Teachers need space and time to use their imaginations to envision new possibilities. School environments that are vibrant and inspiring enhance creativity. 6 Promote individual and collaborative creative thinking and design. Stimulation of other people, is important to bounce ideas off and to share ideas. Other people are also valuable to challenge ideas . Private time is so valuable to work things out. 7 Set high expectations about the degree of creativity. 'Promoting and valuing innovation are critical to unlocking creative practices', the authors write. They found that often starting to think creatively bred a desire for greater creativity. This mind shift often came from the top of the school where a passionate interest in how learning and teaching could be different help spawn a culture that expected people to think differently. challenges of child centred and personalised learning stimulated creativity. Creative schools developed that feeling of breaking free from constraints. 'Confidence was seen by many as a prerequisite and gaining "permission" from senior leaders was seen as important.' Support when things weren't working out was also vital - that it is OK to make mistakes. 'Teachers like an environment where it is more than acceptable to do unusual and exiting things'. Leaders need to set the bar high and push people to be imaginative and to think originally. 8 Use failure as a learning opportunity. Teachers, the authors observed,worry a great deal about the risks associated with experimenting with new ideas. By valuing the things that go wrong there is an opportunity to limit such worries- 'if it doesn't work we can learn from it'. It needs an environment 'where you can fail..the freedom to explore, to take risks to make mistakes and to learn from them'. 'Teachers need to feel they can have a go ..it is OK if you don't get it right the first time'. 9 Keep referring to core values. While creative thinking is exciting staying close to core values appears to provide the bedrock for success. The authors write that, 'being clear and explicit about values and holding them in a steady state offers a context and stable point of reference for people. 'Knowing that everyone is moving towards the same goals and vision keep you going'. Some Question and issuers to be resolved. A recurrent theme in the project was the teachers attitudes towards risk. Teachers live in a high stakes environment with children's learning being the chips which teachers feel they are gambling with. The impact of creative leadership is bound up with the principals notions and values of creativity and how it might be measured. Is it that teachers creativity is enhance, or it its contribution to students' learning. What measures could be used? Each school in the project was asked to develop its own measures. What are social conditions conducive for school leaders to be creative? What is needed is a mix time and space mixed with the ebb and flow of conversation in groups with others starting out to be creative? What exactly is seen as creative? Is it new solutions or adapting others ideas, or both? There are different levels of creativity ranging from incremental to radical and transformational; minor tweaking or a complete overall. What are the next steps? Bringing about deep and meaningful change to learning practices is one of school leadership's greatest challenges. Leading for change is rooted in current reality and at the same time as dealing with the future'. Tensions also exist between the conceptions politicians, the media and the wider community have about the purpose of education and how schools can best improve. Leaders also have tensions to cope with between what they believe is important to prepare students for the future and what external agents expect them to do ,and frequently judge them by. It seems it all depend on the belief's of the school leaders. Developing creative leadership is certainly, as the authors title suggest, a challenge for our times. Creativity in the past relied on creative teachers working with other like minds in other schools; today this challenge has been passed on to principals. Will enough principals be creative and courageous enough to contribute creative students to solve problem beyond current thinking? Networking with other principals to gain mutual strength is the only way forward.   |
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| Leadership for a Learning Organisation - Tony Gurr Posted: 07 Mar 2011 05:33 PM PST  To read this article in full on Tony's site. I have slightly edited Tony's article. It is relevant to leadership issues ( or lack of leadership) in our schools. 'My way or the highway' or 'walk the talk' leader? Which one are you? Tony writes: In my 25 years in the world of teaching and learning, I have come across many managers / supervisors that have graduated from the "my-way-or-the-highway" school of thought. Many of you will also know I frequently discuss ideas from the "walk-your-talk" school of leadership. Now, I know we are warned (by Obi-Wan) that "Only the Sith deal in absolutes" – but I thought it might be useful to compare these two perspectives and look at which form of "educational leadership" might be best suited for a 21st Century Learning Organisation. Besides, even a Jedi has to look to the dark side now and again. In the brave, new world of 21st Century education, success now depends not only on an institution's ability to adapt, but also being able to adapt quickly. If our schools, colleges and universities are to make headway and evolve to meet the new challenges we are facing, they must make learning a central element of their cultural capital. "Tony, that's just silly"! I hear a few of you mumble. "Surely, our schools, colleges and universities are all about learning…aren't they"? Sadly, this is not the case. Many of our schools are "teaching schools" (not learning schools). The majority of higher educational institutions remain institutions of "instruction and research". They have all evolved in a culture that prides itself on being "learned" and many simply fail to acknowledge that "houses of learning" need to be built on a stronger foundation – a culture of learning. Schein defines culture as the sum of solutions to yesterday's problems and views an organisation's culture as the collective behaviours, intentions, and values that people develop over time to make sense of the world. He is right – who am I to disagree with the Jedi Master of organisational leadership? But, the purpose of culture is to "teach" people how to "see" the world (Bodnarczuk). As our world is changing so fast, we need to look at the type of culture that is required. A new vision of "next practice" in organisational culture has been emerging over the past few years. This vision is radically different to the type of culture many of us "grew up" in – it is radically different to the views of many educational managers and supervisors who "learned" us (and are still "learning" us today): Many of the notions and concepts upon which this new vision is based are more "human" and more "organic" than the more mechanistic views of the Taylorist bureaucrats of our world. The centrality of "learning" in this new paradigm of cultural capital cannot be overstated. In the face of ever-changing conditions and uncertainty, more and more educators are beginning to see that real change will not come from curriculum renewal or professional development programmes alone (they would be great, too) – it needs to begin at the level of culture and learning is the key. The "my-way-or-the-highway" educational manager often just does not "get" this – (s)he lives in the past, (s)he has a specific world view that conditions the decisions (s)he takes and the ways in which (s)he interacts with those around (or "under") him or her. Don't get me wrong…I am not saying these people are "evil Sith Lords" (but see Peter's quote below). Many of them work hard, many of them have the interests of students close to their hearts, many of them care deeply about moving from "good" to "great". The issue is that their worldviews have developed in an "unconscious manner" and they also believe that they are "walking-their-talk" – indeed, most of them are. The challenge is that these worldviews, like the cultures that created them, are the sum of solutions to yesterday's problems. And, we need to talk more about "tomorrow"! Most "walk-your-talk" educational leaders "hear" this message. Many have listened to the great advice of Stephen Covey and other organisational thinkers – a large number of them are great listeners themselves, great motivators and great "care-givers". But, are they all effective? Walking-your-talk implies that you know your talk, you are conscious of it – and, more importantly that you "live" it. We all know that it is not cool for a teacher to walk around advocating constructivist ideas and humanistic approaches to learning – but rely on "serial drilling" and screams for "order, discipline and respect" behind closed classroom doors. For educational leaders, it's no good saying "I believe in collaborative decision-making" and then repeatedly go against the conventional wisdom of your "followers" (I do not like this word but needed to use it here – you get it, right?)… There is a very thin line between "walk-your-talk" educational leaders and "my-way-or-the-highway" educational leaders. We often forget this. Now, you know why I love Star Wars so much… The biggest problem in looking at these two perspectives in absolute terms is that both the "walk-the-talk" and the "my-way-or-the-highway" school of thought believes their own talk and that their way is "right". However, just because we believe we are "right" – does not "right" make. Human beings are social animals – we live, breathe and grow together. However, the rate at which we grow differs – and this means even ideas that appear "right" cannot (and should not) be "forced" on others. Furthermore, even if you are a graduate of the "walk-your-talk" school of leadership, you also have to be prepared to learn, change your talk and walk a different walk – from time to time. The question remains, however, if we are racing into the 21st Century and if this century requires a new paradigm of cultural capital and a new breed of educational leader – which school of thought is better equipped to deliver? I'm going to put my money on "Jedi Master Schein" when he tells us we all need to "activate the learning gene in the DNA of organisational culture". So, if you are an educational leader or aspire to be one: REMEMBER leaders are responsible for their organisations, their teams and the culture these teams live and breathe each day. Leaders cannot blame others, cannot blame the past – they have to assume responsibility to create a "new future".And, KNOW THYSELF and how far your "shadow" reaches The best advice is to: TREAD softly and bear in mind that stomping on the dreams of educators is the best way to harm student learning – and your learning results. REFLECT and look in the "mirror" every day before you go work. LEARN and re-create yourself every day My thanks to my "muse", the best "natural counsellor" I have ever had the pleasure to be married to. I am also deeply indebted to Peter Koestenbaum – a man who gave a "stranger" 2 hours on his 80th birthday just to "chat" on Skype – showed that stranger that he was walking the "right path" and led me to one of his quotes: "To destroy the dignity of a human being is evil. To be indifferent to the feelings of others is evil. Not to support people's sense of self-respect is evil". And, who can forget George Lucas – who taught me all about "good and evil"!   |
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| Posted: 06 Mar 2011 03:51 PM PST  Kirsten Olsen author of the book 'Wounded by School-recapturing the Joy in Learning and Standing up to the Old School Culture'. Kirsten's book brings to light the devastating consequences of an educational approach that values conformity over creativity, flattens student's' interests,and dampens down differences among learners. Olsen's book shows that current schooling does not favour all students and tends to shame, disable and bore many learners. Powerful stuff. I don't think teachers like to face up to the fact that schooling actually harms many of their students but it is clear , reading Kirsten's Olsen book, it does. Obviously this harming is not done intentionally but it is all too easy to blame failure on dysfunctional students. Certainly too few students leave school with their joy of learning alive and their unique gifts and talents strengthened - not even the so called successful students. Futurist Alvin Toffler wrote in 1970, 'Mass education was the ingenious machine constructed by industrialism to produce the kind of adults it needed....the regimentation, lack of individualism, the rigid systems of seating, grouping, grading and marking,the authoritarian style of the teacher'. For many students the dream of mass education has morphed into a nightmare. As Olsen quotes, 'If Rip Van Winkle were to come back today after a hundred years, the only institutions he would recognise would be prisons and schools'. Schools are fundamentally old fashioned institutions developed for a different era. As one educational architect writes 'Today's 21st schools model 1950 architecture, use 1990s technology,and delver 1960s curriculum'. Unfortunately many parents and politicians still see educational conformity as appropriate with students divided into age groups who then 'progress' through classes, in fixed ability grouping, with prescribed subject matter, until they leave. Students graded into degrees of finished products through endless testing. Students in this model are seen as raw material to be processed. Unfortunately what students need to thrive in the future are self confidence, persistence , creativity, the capacity to change and adapt to new circumstances ,with the ability to make decisions with out full information, and the capacity to work with others. This is the premise behind the revised New Zealand Curriculum now sidelined by politicians who want to return to the standardisation and testing of the industrial era. The imagination , creativity and courage of both teachers and students are being neglected. And all this while we have undergone a revolution in our understanding of how students learn. Personally I am in the same position as 60s educational reformer John Holt ( one of my all time favourites) who finally gave up on schools ever changing into organisations able to develop the love of learning and talents of all students. They seem more equipped, as Olsen writes, to 'wound' children; more about conformity and obedience. And I agree. The whole system needs a fundamental revaluation. Their are alternative purposes to consider. Other visions do exist. Students need a more customised or personalised education based on recognising and developing their talents,abilities and passions based around relevant learning projects. Projects that call on the appropriate learning disciplines to solve. And such a philosophy is not new.It is just that schools have been impervious to such ideas. It is ironic that schools are not 'learning organisations' themselves. Rather than failing students it is failing traditional schools we need to worry about. Too many students, Olsen writes, leave feeling disconnected, uncared for, stressed, confused and angry - for such students school is irrelevant. They are seen as problems and, as they remain un-helped, they lash out and end up in even more trouble. It is a cycle seen in too many schools. The blame, however, is always placed on the learner. There are hundreds of such unengaged, under performing students in any city. Such students are like canaries in a coal mine -when the canaries die no one should be in the mines. If schools were to focus on ensuring all students were to be engaged then all students would benefit. To achieve such a vision would mean re-imaging schools as we currently know them. The future needs the diverse intelligence of all students.To achieve such a vision schools need to celebrate diversity rather than current conformity and standardisation. Toffler recommended 'shutting down the whole education system' and suggested we should be 'thinking from the ground up'. This was Ivan Illich's ( of the de-schooling movement) and John Holt's position in the late 70s and one I have come to myself. No change can occur until we first imagine it. We need to consider how schools need to be changed based on new conceptions of learning and ability assisted by the potential of new technology. Schools ought to models of learning organisations not monuments to past thinking. "Listen" said the the White Spirit. 'Once you were a child. Once you knew what inquiry was was for.There was a time when you asked questions because you wanted answers,and were glad when you had found them. Become that child again; even now". C.S.Lewis. the Great Divorce 1945   |
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PowerPoint Tip: Equipment to carry when presenting
I was speaking at the CSAE Trillium Chapter Winter Summit last Friday. I brought a lot of cables and equipment because I was doing a live demonstration of how you can create a video for your web site using visuals you create in PowerPoint. I normally don�t carry that amount of gear with me, but I do carry more than just my laptop and remote. In today�s article I want to talk about three pieces of equipment that help me present successfully when travelling.
I carry a 12 foot VGA extension cable in the bottom of my laptop bag. Why? Because it allows me to place my laptop where I can see it and work with it regardless of how the AV staff have set up the projector connection. Typically the connection for the projector is taped down to the lectern. I don�t speak behind a lectern because it creates a physical barrier between the audience and the presenter. Instead, I use my extension cord to move the connection to a nearby table or chair. This also allows me to access my laptop in case I am doing a live demonstration or hyperlinking from a slide to external content.
Another key piece of equipment in my laptop bag is a small hamburger speaker. When I want to use a video or audio clip, the laptop speakers are inadequate because they are not loud enough and they are aimed towards me, not the audience. I don�t want to haul a large set of speakers with me, and this is the smallest speaker I could find that fills a room. I�ve used it successfully in rooms with 50-75 people. It is powered from a USB port, so there are no power cords to carry. It plugs in to the headphone jack on the laptop, and it can also be used to play music from an MP3 player if you want to. If you�ve never seen this type of speaker before, here is a link to the one that iHome makes: http://www.ihomeaudio.com/iHM60LC/, which is available at many retailers.
Last year I changed the portable wireless mouse I carry when I travel. I am now using the Microsoft Arc Mouse. Why did I make the switch? A number of reasons. First, it is the smallest and lightest portable mouse that I can use comfortably (those tiny ones hurt my hand after a short time). It stores even smaller because it flips closed, which is great when you are trying to fit everything in a laptop bag. That flipping closed also turns off the mouse, saving the battery when I am not using it. The USB dongle for the computer magnetically sticks to the bottom of the mouse and is protected when the mouse is flipped close. And being wireless, I can use it as a remote if I need to in case my remote dies during a presentation. You should be able to buy this mouse at most computer or electronic retailers.
Those are three key pieces of equipment that I carry to help my presentations be successful. If you have other key pieces of equipment that help you present when travelling, feel free to add them in the comments below.
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